Jobs Growth: Definition, Measurement, and Why It Matters

What is jobs growth?

Jobs growth refers to the net change in nonfarm payroll employment from one month to the next. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports this figure in its Employment Situation Summary (the monthly jobs report). Because employment is a central driver of income, demand, and economic activity, monthly jobs growth is one of the most closely watched indicators of the economy’s health.

How jobs growth is measured

• The BLS compiles jobs growth from an establishment survey of roughly 119,000 businesses and government agencies, covering about 20% of U.S. nonfarm employment.
• The headline figure is the net change in nonfarm payrolls (agricultural jobs are excluded because they are highly seasonal and harder to estimate).
• The report also incorporates a separate household survey that provides the unemployment rate and labor force statistics.
• Initial monthly estimates are revised in each of the next two monthly reports as additional data come in.

Interpreting the numbers

• Large monthly gains generally indicate stronger-than-trend economic expansion; small gains or declines can signal a slowdown.
• Because monthly figures can be volatile and are revised, analysts look for trends across several months, not just one report.
• The report’s components—average weekly hours and average hourly earnings—offer early signals on labor demand and wage-driven inflation risks.

Why jobs growth matters for markets and policy

• The monthly jobs report is one of the earliest comprehensive economic releases each month and frequently moves financial markets.
• Policymakers, especially the Federal Reserve, monitor jobs growth closely when setting monetary policy because employment and wage trends affect inflation and economic slack.
• Traders and investors compare actual data to consensus forecasts to gauge whether the economy is strengthening or weakening relative to expectations.

Fastest-growing occupations and longer-term outlook

• Occupational growth varies widely by industry. Recent BLS projections highlight rapid growth for occupations such as wind turbine service technicians, solar photovoltaic installers, nurse practitioners, data scientists, information security analysts, medical and health services managers, and physician assistants.
• The BLS projected total U.S. employment growth of roughly 6.7 million jobs for 2023–2033, averaging about 0.4% annual growth—slower than the prior decade—largely due to slower population growth and lower labor force participation as the population ages.

Where to find jobs growth data

• The primary source is the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation Summary and related CES (Current Employment Statistics) releases.

Limitations and caveats

• Monthly payroll figures are estimates subject to revision.
• Short-term volatility, seasonal adjustments, and sample limitations mean the report should be interpreted alongside other indicators (GDP, consumer spending, hiring surveys, and wage measures).

Bottom line

Monthly nonfarm payroll growth is a key, timely indicator of U.S. labor market health and a critical input for investors and policymakers. It signals changes in economic momentum and, together with wage and hours data, helps assess inflationary pressures and overall demand conditions.