Visible Supply

Visible Supply

Visible supply is the quantity of a commodity or asset that is currently held in storage or en route and is available to be bought, sold, or delivered. It represents a concrete, countable stock — for example, the wheat stored in granaries and the wheat being transported from farms. Visible supply is an important indicator for markets and futures contracts because it shows how much physical product can be delivered on short notice.

Key takeaways

• Visible supply = physically accounted-for stock that is available or on the way.
• In commodity markets, rising visible supply is typically bearish for prices; falling visible supply is typically bullish.
• Futures prices may reflect expected future supply (invisible supply) as well as visible supply.
• In municipal bond markets, “30‑day visible supply” estimates the par value of new-issue muni bonds (maturities of 13 months or more) expected to reach the market in the next 30 days.

How visible supply affects prices

Prices respond to the balance of supply and demand. All else equal, when visible supply increases, upward price pressure is reduced (bearish); when visible supply tightens, prices tend to rise (bullish). Traders and analysts watch visible supply to gauge near-term availability and delivery risk.

However, visible supply is only one influence on price. Since many commodities are bought and sold through futures, forwards, and options well before physical delivery, market prices also incorporate expectations about future production, inventories, and demand. Those expected or not-yet-stored quantities are often referred to as invisible supply.

Visible vs. invisible supply

• Visible supply: physical stocks already accumulated, stored, or in transit that can be counted and potentially delivered now.
• Invisible supply: production or stocks that will exist in the future (e.g., crops still in the field, oil being produced and refined) and are not yet available for immediate delivery.

Invisible supply matters because markets price in future availability, weather, production forecasts, policy changes, and other factors that affect forthcoming supply.

30‑day visible supply in municipal bond markets

In the municipal bond (muni) market, the 30‑day visible supply is an estimate of the par value of new-issue muni bonds (with maturities of 13 months or more) expected to come to market over the next 30 days. It is used as a short-term indicator of new-debt issuance and market capacity.

An increase in the 30‑day visible supply typically exerts downward pressure on muni bond prices (and upward pressure on yields), because more new debt competes for investor demand. Conversely, a decline in visible supply can support bond prices.

Industry publications and market data services publish 30‑day visible supply figures to help underwriters, dealers, and investors plan issuance and evaluate market conditions.

What investors and traders should monitor

• Regular inventory and storage reports for commodities (government or exchange publications).
• Supply forecasts and crop/production estimates that feed invisible supply expectations.
• Transportation and logistical indicators that can shift visible supply quickly.
• For muni investors: scheduled new-issue calendars, dealer feeds, and published visible supply figures to anticipate issuance pressure.
• Broader demand drivers (economic growth, policy, seasonality) that interact with supply signals.

Conclusion

Visible supply gives a concrete measure of what is immediately available for delivery or sale and is a useful short-term gauge of supply-side pressure. For a fuller view of likely price movements, combine visible supply data with expectations about future production and demand (invisible supply), plus market-specific factors like new-issue calendars in bond markets.