Whisper Number: What It Is, Myths, and an Example

Key takeaways

• A whisper number is an unofficial, unpublished expectation for a company’s upcoming earnings (or other data) shared informally among traders and investors.
• It often differs from the published consensus estimate and can drive market reactions.
• Whisper numbers can be useful but are unreliable — they may be based on rumor, selective information, or crowd sentiment.

What is a whisper number?

A whisper number is the informal consensus of what market participants expect a company will report for an upcoming earnings release (commonly expressed as earnings per share). Unlike the consensus estimate compiled from analysts’ published forecasts, the whisper number reflects what traders, portfolio managers, and others are quietly anticipating and acting on.

Because the whisper is what some market participants believe and have priced in, stock prices often react relative to the whisper number rather than the published consensus.

How whisper numbers form

• Analyst behavior: Public analyst estimates tend to cluster (herding) because published outlier forecasts can hurt careers if wrong. Analysts may privately believe different figures but avoid publishing them.
• Market chatter: Traders, portfolio managers, and employees may share privately held views.
• Public aggregation: Websites, message boards, and social media can aggregate individual expectations into a de facto whisper number.
• Informal sources: Historically, brokers sometimes passed unofficial expectations to select clients; regulatory changes have curtailed that practice.

Why whispers matter — and why to be cautious

Whisper numbers matter because they can be the expectations already priced into a stock. If actual results fall short of the whisper but beat the official consensus, a stock can still decline. Conversely, beating a whisper can trigger a strong rally even if the company exceeds the consensus.

However:
* Whisper numbers are not systematically more accurate than consensus estimates.
They can be based on rumor, selective leaks, or noisy crowd sentiment.
Market reaction depends on how widely the whisper was acted upon and on broader market conditions at the time of the release.

Common myths and concerns

• Myth: Whisper numbers were always secret insights from brokers to VIP clients. Reality: While private channels existed, regulatory changes and compliance rules have reduced selective disclosure; much whisper “intel” today comes from public chatter and aggregation.
• Myth: Whispers are inherently superior to consensus. Reality: Sometimes whispers are more accurate, sometimes not. They are simply a different source of expectations with their own biases and limitations.

Example

Imagine a company has an official consensus EPS estimate of $5.00.
* Market participants expect $6.00 (the whisper) and buy the stock, which prices in the $6.00 expectation.
If reported EPS = $6.00: little reaction, because the whisper was already priced in.
If reported EPS = $7.00: the stock often jumps, since results exceeded both whisper and consensus.
* If reported EPS = $5.00: the stock may sell off, since results missed the whisper even though they matched the published consensus.

Market context matters. If broader market sentiment is negative on release day, even a beat of the whisper may not lift the stock.

How to use whisper numbers

• Treat whispers as one input among many: combine with fundamentals, guidance, and valuation.
• Check the source and credibility of any whisper estimate. Aggregated whispers from many independent participants are generally more meaningful than single-source rumors.
• Be aware of positioning risk: if many traders act on the same whisper, price moves can be amplified in either direction.

Bottom line

A whisper number is the unofficial expectation for an earnings or data release that can influence stock price behavior. It can help explain surprising market reactions but should be used cautiously because it is often noisy and unverified. Use whispers alongside established analysis, not as a sole basis for investment decisions.