World Economic Outlook (WEO)

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World Economic Outlook (WEO)

What the WEO is

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a semiannual report published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that assesses the global economy and provides macroeconomic forecasts for the IMF’s member countries. It is a widely cited source for projections of global and national output, inflation, employment, fiscal balances and external accounts.

What it includes

  • Global and country-level forecasts: real GDP growth, consumer prices (inflation), current account balances, unemployment, fiscal and debt statistics.
  • Thematic chapters that analyze pressing global economic issues (e.g., trade, debt, employment, energy shocks).
  • A statistical appendix and database with historical data and projection assumptions used in the forecasts.

Publication schedule and sources

  • Main reports are published in April and October.
  • Shorter WEO updates are released in January and July.
  • Data and projections are drawn from IMF staff consultations with member countries and the WEO database.

Why the WEO matters

  • It summarizes the IMF’s view of global and regional economic prospects and policy priorities.
  • Financial markets, policymakers, researchers and media use WEO forecasts and analysis to inform decisions and debate.
  • Because the IMF conducts extensive country surveillance and lending operations, its assessments carry significant weight.

Limitations and criticisms

  • Forecasts are subject to uncertainty from shocks (e.g., pandemics, wars, commodity price swings).
  • The IMF’s policy recommendations and program conditions have drawn criticism in the past; while the WEO itself is less controversial, its analyses reflect the institution’s perspectives and assumptions.

Example: April 2022 WEO

The April 2022 WEO, titled “War Sets Back the Global Recovery,” illustrated how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and related energy and commodity price increases weakened the recovery from the COVID-19 downturn. Key points included:
Global growth was revised down from a 2021 rebound of about 6.1% to forecasts of roughly 3.6% for both 2022 and 2023 (revisions from earlier projections of around 4.4% for 2022 and 3.8% for 2023).
 Chapters examined fiscal and private-sector debt, employment and green transitions, and disruptions to global trade and value chains.
* The report highlighted commodity price spikes (notably grains and energy) and bank exposures to Russia in regional vulnerability charts, supported by extensive tables and fiscal-assumption notes.

Takeaway

The WEO is the IMF’s flagship macroeconomic outlook, offering comprehensive data, forecasts and policy analysis on the global economy. It is an essential reference for understanding near-term global prospects and the economic implications of major shocks.

Sources

International Monetary Fund — World Economic Outlook (including April 2022 report)