Yearly Probability of Dying
The yearly probability of dying is a statistical estimate of the likelihood that an individual will die within the next 12 months. It’s derived from mortality (actuarial or life) tables, which summarize death rates for groups defined by age, sex and sometimes other factors.
How it’s estimated
- Mortality tables calculate the percentage who die in a defined period by dividing the number of deaths in that group by the number alive at the period’s start.
- Tables can incorporate additional variables such as tobacco use, education, income, or specific causes of death.
- Industry-standard tables, such as the Commissioners Standard Ordinary (CSO) tables adopted by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC), differentiate risk by age, sex and tobacco use.
Key uses
- Setting life insurance premiums and pricing annuities.
- Public-health statistics and policy.
- Calculating life expectancy and related financial measures (for example, IRS life-expectancy tables used to determine required minimum distributions).
Examples
- U.S. Social Security actuarial tables indicate:
- A 30‑year‑old male: ~0.23% chance of dying within one year.
- A 60‑year‑old: ~1.2% chance of dying within one year.
- A 119‑year‑old (top of the table): 100% chance within one year.
- Mortality rates used by insurers will often show materially different risks for smokers versus non‑smokers.
Related measures
- Yearly probability of living: the complement of the yearly probability of dying — the chance of surviving one more year.
- Mortality rate: the number of deaths as a percentage of a population over a given period (often expressed as crude, age‑specific, sex‑specific, cause‑specific, etc.).
- Life expectancy: the expected remaining years of life for someone of a given age and characteristics. Example from IRS tables: a newborn’s remaining life expectancy is listed around 84.6 years; someone aged 120 has a remaining expectancy of about one year (table top limit).
Other time frames
- Some measures use shorter or longer spans than one year:
- Under‑5 mortality rate (U5MR): probability of dying between birth and age five.
- Maternal mortality: often measured over pregnancy and up to 42 days after the end of pregnancy (per WHO definition).
Bottom line
Yearly probability of dying is a population‑based estimate used across insurance, public health and financial planning. It can be presented for whole populations or broken down by age, sex and other risk factors, and serves as a foundation for related concepts such as mortality rates and life expectancy.
Sources
- U.S. Social Security Administration — Actuarial Life Table
- Society of Actuaries — 2017 Commissioners Standard Ordinary (CSO) Tables
- World Health Organization — Under‑Five Mortality Rate; Maternal Deaths
- Internal Revenue Service — Publication 590‑B (life expectancy tables)